Many promiment liberal bloggers have been expressing the view that nothing will change the level of political engagement of the Christian Right. I disagree with this point of view - if you start to look, there are plenty of signs the movement - as a political force - is starting to fracture. It's a philosophically incoherent movement, and while the appearance of internal contradictions doesn't necessarily cause movements to implode immediately, when you combine contradictions with rapidly shifting political winds and the needs and temptations of power politics, changes are inevitable. It seems that we're starting to see some signs of these changes now. Examples under the fold:
1) Polling signs that the Christian Right is losing its party discipline. For example, see this Quinnipac poll in Ohio - pre-Foley - showing Strickland getting 40% of the "white born-again evangelical" vote to Blackwell's 53%
Quinnipac Poll. Or see the more recent CBS/NYT poll showing Bush's popularity below 50% among Ohio evangelicals.
NY Times Poll
2. Ralph Reed's embarassing loss in the primary for the Lt. Gov. seat in Georgia - by more than 10 points. See: this
3. Judge Roy Moore's loss of the GOP gov. primary in Alabama by a 2-to-1 margin - to a Republican governor who sought to raise taxes because, he said, his "faith" demanded it. Here I never would have guessed that result - would you?
4. The Southern Baptist Convention's election of an outsider as their President - Frank Page - a conservative theologically but one who has questions about the politicizing of the faith. See this article. Also, check on the emergence of politically moderate (theologically conservative) Baptist ministers like this blogger and the others he links to right here.
5. Signs that the leadership of the Christian Right groups are feeling pressure to break with the GOP over the gays in their ranks - expressing surprise and dismay (which they didn't really share)- that there were gays in the party. Tony Perkins of theFamily Research Counciland Cliff Kincaid of Accuracy in Media also known as AIM. This move was forced by having to toe the line the followers expect them to take, rather than the politically expedient course they'd prefer. In sum: leaders feeling pressure to move away from the GOP.
6. Signs that the leadership of the Christian Right is starting to break with the GOP over the environment - this time a move towards moderation, but, again, a move pretty clearly pressured by the followers rather than the leaders (or emerging leaders looking for trends with which to pick up new followers) and one expedient neither for the GOP nor the leadership of the Xian Right. See this site
7. Jay Fawcett running even in Colorado's Fifth District - the first Democrat ever, apparently, to give a Republican a real fight in an area that could be called the Vatican City of the Christian Right. Denver Post article here
These are all just signs - maybe other readers know of more - but it seems to me that something is starting to happen here. I think its that the movement has hit its apex as a political (not a cultural or religious) force, and it may be starting to crack as a unified political force. The Religious Right may take the rest of the US with them, but they are starting, slowly but surely, to fracture from their own contradictions.